FY22 – Bada Business

Financial Policy Normalization Likely To Begin By The End Of FY22

With the interest rates continually declining, the Reserve Bank of India may start tightening the monetary policy. The gradual normalization of the policy is likely to begin by the end of this financial year.

While the CPI inflation moderated marginally to 6.26 percent, the retail inflation declined in June but remained above the 6 percent threshold for the second consecutive month.

A Kotak report noted that a peak in inflation may provide comfort to MPC.

“Softer-than-expected CPI inflation along with broad-based moderation in core inflation is expected to provide relief to the MPC to continue with the pro-growth policy guidance in the near term. While much depends on the incoming data, we expect the onset of gradual policy normalization towards the end of FY2022,” it said.

Core inflation (CPI excluding food, fuel, and pan, tobacco) moderated to 6.2 percent, with flat sequential momentum following a surge of 1.5 percent M-oM in May. After a broad-based increase in the components of core inflation in May, prices have risen a lot lesser in June across all categories except transport and communication.

“We expect core inflation to average 6.1 percent in FY2022 (5.3 percent in FY2021) amid pass-through of global commodity prices and pickup in demand across various services sectors through FY2022,” it said.

While the headline inflation remains elevated above MPC’s upper threshold of 6 percent, the June print suggests that inflation may have peaked and the trajectory in 3QFY22 will moderate towards an average of 4.7 percent.

“We expect RBI to continue to maintain a pro-growth bias in the August policy focus given that a large part of the increase remains supply-driven and, hence, transitory in nature,” it said.

However, as economic activity begins to normalize with progress in vaccination, RBI’s room to ignore the inflationary risks, as well as a closing of the negative output gap, will be restricted, prompting gradual monetary policy normalization from October, although much will depend on the evolution of the pandemic, vaccination, and data, it said.

To Kick Start Growth In The Country, Strong Fiscal Policy Support Needed: EY India!

To kick-start growth in post-COVID India, strong fiscal policy support in the form of stimulus measures is required, according to EY India.

The consultancy`s June edition of Economy Watch stated that the health sector should be the primary focus of the fiscal stimulus package. According to the firm`s June edition, “This could ensure meeting the short-term healthcare demand arising from COVID’s Second Wave and a possible Third Wave besides supporting growth and employment in the economy.”

As per the report, the package should solely focus on income support measures for the vulnerable rural and urban population. It should also focus on making provisions for additional vaccination expenditure as the Central Government`s recent announcement for its commitment to finance 75 percent of the country`s total vaccine procurement.

Besides, the policy should also take care of any additional expenditure, which is directed mainly towards expanding health sector infrastructure.

“Together, these add to Rs 2.35 lakh crore of which around Rs 0.65 lakh crore can be accessed by the restructuring of budgeted expenditure on other heads leaving a balance of Rs 1.7 lakh crore which would constitute an additionally 0.8 percent point of GDP on the budgeted fiscal deficit of 6.7 percent of estimated GDP,” the report said.

“Thus, the fiscal deficit would need to be increased to 7.9 percent of GDP in FY22 to cover the revenue shortfall of 0.4 percent points and the expenditure additionally of 0.8 percent points of GDP,” it added.

The report said that although growth is projected at 8.3 percent in 2021 for India, this masks significant expected economic damage from COVID’s Second Wave.

A few days earlier even the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said it expects the Indian economy to grow 11.5% in the June quarter and the range of 8.4-10.1% in FY22 over a negative base, calling for an expansionary fiscal policy to put the economy on a sustainable growth path.